Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Analysis: Economic Growth Springs Back to Life

Economic growth has suddenly returned in the 3rd quarter but in his latest column Evan Lockridge asks, will it continue?

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
November 10, 2016
Analysis: Economic Growth Springs Back to Life

 

3 min to read


In a scene in the movie Crimson Tide, the Navy submarine U.S.S. Alabama has lost power and continues sinking. As it drifts deeper and deeper, with crew members feeling the end of their lives in sight, suddenly propulsion is restored. That’s when one crew member says, “We’re living, gentleman. We’re living.”

Ad Loading...

Well, ladies and gentlemen, in case you haven’t been keeping up with current economic events, we are indeed living.

Ad Loading...

Just look at what happened with the nation’s gross domestic product growth in the third quarter of the year. This widest measure of economic health expanded at its best rate in two years, a 2.9% annual pace, compared to barely over 1% in the first half of the year and better than a 2.5% improvement forecast by a panel of economists.

While it’s not time to break out the champagne and celebrate, it’s certainly reason to at least breath a sigh of relief after feelings of uncertainty that have plagued anyone who watches the economy.

This surge was not unexpected, but the question is, will it continue?

At the American Trucking Associations Management Conference & Exhibition in Las Vegas in October, during a session hosted by ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello, guest Diane Swonk, analyst with DS Economics, said the economy was at a “turning point,” explaining business conditions were expected to rebound from earlier “subpar growth.”

As she predicted, consumers in the third quarter continued to spend. Also, job growth has been fairly strong, although Swonk believes there are still people sitting on the sidelines, meaning it could grow more and push the economy into an even higher gear. Others, such as Costello, expect job growth to decelerate at some point.

Ad Loading...

Separately, in discussing the third quarter GDP results, RBC Economist Nathan Janzen noted that some areas of the economy that had been pulling down overall economic growth this year looked better in the third quarter, at least relatively speaking. For example, the pull-back in activity in the oil and gas sector appears to be bottoming out, which should support stronger business investment.

While numbers on fourth quarter performance were just starting to roll in at press time, what little was available was at least encouraging. The Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index from the financial information services provider IHS Markit rebounded in October from a three-month low in September. With the fastest rate of improvement since October 2015, the report signaled a solid upturn in overall business conditions, with manufacturing production increasing for five months straight.

There is still reason for at least caution. The third quarter bump in the GDP only brings year to date growth to an average of 1.7%, down from around 2% in the third quarter of 2015.

Also, as pointed out last month in this space, Daniel Meckstroth, chief economist with the industry group the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation, told those attending the FTR Conference in September to expect both a recovery for the economy and freight in the fourth quarter – but not to expect a huge boom.

Add to this the lingering question of whether the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates for the second time in 10 years before 2016 is out. These latest economic numbers certainly make it more likely. But even it does, any hike will be small and any further increases will most likely be slow and unlikely to sink the economy.

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

More Fleet Management

Illustration showing generic graphs and stylized trucking fleet
Fleet Managementby StaffMarch 24, 2026

ACT: Trucking Volumes Rise, Capacity Tightens as Fuel Prices Cloud Outlook

ACT Research data shows volumes hitting a four-year high and supply-demand balance strengthening, but higher oil prices are undercutting tariff relief and tempering optimism.

Read More →
People looking at Wabash display at TMC
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseMarch 23, 2026

Wabash Teams Physical Security With Digital Tech For Better Cargo Visibility

The patent-pending cargo solution integrates a digitally connected cargo door and an intelligent locking system with the TrailerHawk.AI technology platform.

Read More →
Cyberstop column header depicting images related to cybersecurity and rising oil prices
Fleet Managementby Ben WilkensMarch 20, 2026

From Diesel Prices to Cyberattacks: How the Iran War Is Affecting Trucking

The impact of the Iran conflict extends beyond fuel costs, bringing more fraud and cybersecurity risks to the trucking industry.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
ATA President Chris Spear.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsMarch 17, 2026

ATA’s Spear Warns Fuel Prices, Trade Policy, and Global Conflict Could Stall Trucking Recovery

Speaking at the TMC Annual Meeting in Nashville, ATA President Chris Spear said trucking faces mounting pressure from rising fuel prices, geopolitical instability, and uncertainty around trade policy.

Read More →
Illustration of author headshot with black-and-white old-fashioned rig in the background

New Entrants, Chameleon Carriers, and Safety: Is It Too Easy to Start a Trucking Company?

More than 100,000 new trucking companies enter the industry each year, but regulators manage to audit only a fraction of them. That churn creates opportunities for inexperienced startups — and for “chameleon carriers” that shut down after safety violations and reappear under new identities. Read more from Deborah Lockridge in this commentary.

Read More →
Panel discussion
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeMarch 12, 2026

Fleet Managers Invited to Apply for Exclusive HDT Exchange Event

HDTX is an intimate event that connects heavy-duty trucking fleet managers with industry suppliers through small-group discussions, educational sessions, and structured one-on-one meetings.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
DAT iPhone Widget.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseMarch 12, 2026

DAT Launches iPhone Widget to Help Owner-Operators Find Loads Faster

New DAT One feature shows top-paying loads directly on an iPhone’s home screen, helping carriers react faster to spot-market opportunities.

Read More →
Optimal Dynamics Scale screen shot
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseMarch 12, 2026

Optimal Dynamics Launches AI System to Help Carriers Choose Better Freight

Optimal Dynamics says its new Scale platform uses AI agents and optimization to help carriers find and secure freight that improves network balance and profitability.

Read More →
DAT March 2026 trucking conditions.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsMarch 12, 2026

DAT: Flatbed Demand Climbs as Van and Reefer Rates Soften

DAT Freight & Analytics data shows tightening flatbed capacity, easing produce markets, and softening van and reefer rates.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
YouTube thumbnail with Mike Roeth of NACFE saying "NACFE's Messy Middle: Which Fuel Wins?"
Fuel Smartsby Deborah LockridgeMarch 11, 2026

Run on Less “Messy Middle” Data Shows Multiple Paths Forward for Truck Powertrains [Watch]

NACFE's Run on Less - Messy Middle project demonstrates the power of data in helping to guide the future of alternative fuels and powertrains for heavy-duty trucks.

Read More →